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Star wars: the technology and politics of satellite internet

Today, 95% of the world’s internet traffic passes through 200 undersea fiber-optic cables that crisscross the globe. Yet, this will all change over the next two decades as satellites become the dominant way we get online.

This week we’re exploring the technology, the geopolitics, and the motivations behind the transition to a world connected by satellite internet.

// Satellite internet: coming to skies near you

Greater consumer demand for internet connectivity, advances in satellite technology, and the entrance of major providers Starlink have led to greater competition, better service, and more geopolitical drama in the satellite internet industry.

• Satellite internet is not new. It became a commercial technology in the mid-1990s, but suffered due to high costs and poor service, becoming a technology of last resort for consumers in need of internet in remote places.
• Today, satellite internet is far more competitive due to developments in semiconductor technology, supercomputing, and their location in space. For example, new internet satellites are located in low-earth orbit (LEO), which is between 200-1,200 miles from earth. Older internet satellites operated in geostationary orbit, which is 60x further away from earth.
• Satellite internet costs 100x less than it used to 15 years ago.

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The number of satellites in lower earth orbit could reach 60,000 by 2030.

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// Starlink dominates the sky

Starlink is the satellite internet service provided by SpaceX. As the first major satellite internet provider to market, Starlink is often the only way for people in war zones and extremely remote areas to access reliable internet (Starlink satellites communicate with small terminals on the ground).

• One in every two satellites orbiting the earth is a Starlink satellite. SpaceX has launched over 4,500 satellites since 2019 and has applied for licenses to launch 40,000 more (applications for licenses go to the International Telecommunications Union, a United Nations entity).
• Starlink’s satellite internet is now available in 50 countries with over 1.5 million subscribers. In the US, the service is commonly used in the backcountry, rural communities, and remote islands.

// Starlink in Ukraine

Starlink’s satellite internet has been instrumental in the Ukrainian war.

• There are more than 42,000 Starlink terminals used in Ukraine by the military, hospitals, businesses, and aid organizations. 
• Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s digital minister, shared with The New York Times, “Starlink is indeed the blood of our entire communication infrastructure now….The huge number of lives that Starlink has helped save can be measured in the thousands. This is one of the fundamental components of our success.”
• SpaceX’s founder, Elon Musk, has been willing to support the Ukrainian effort with Starlink internet, but earlier this year expressed concern about his company’s internet being used for long-range drone strikes by Ukrainian forces. This concern led Musk to deactivate Starlink near Crimea last September to thwart Ukrainian communication.
• Last year, SpaceX told the US Defense Department that the ongoing cost to provide satellite internet to Ukraine would be $400 million over 12 months, and asked the Pentagon to take over funding. They finalized a deal to give the Pentagon control of where Starlink’s internet signal works inside Ukraine.

The fact that a private company, accountable to no government, wields such power in a major geopolitical conflict has raised alarms. Western allies of Ukraine have been anxious to regain control over such a crucial technology.

// The new star wars

Because no other company or country has been able to match Starlink’s reach and operations, its use has growing geopolitical implications.

• Taking sides in conflict: As the example of Ukraine demonstrates, Starlink’s internet is often of critical importance in global conflicts. For example, Starlink terminals have been smuggled into Iran to support the coordination and connectivity of activists protesting against the government (Iran accused Starlink of violating its sovereignty). 
• Local regulations are limiting rollout: In Africa, countries like Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Senegal have banned Starlink, due to a lack of local licenses. After the earthquakes in Turkey, Starlink offered to provide service, only to be turned down by Turkish authorities who said the service needed to be approved by the government first. 
• Geopolitical power dynamics: China disapproved of Starlink’s rollout in Ukraine (conceivably out of concern that Starlink might do something similar in the event of a conflict with Taiwan). Further, China sought assurances from Musk that Starlink would not be sold in China (as it is developing its own service).
• Country-backed satellite internet: Governments are beginning to get serious about developing their own state-funded satellite internet service. The US has launched the Space-Based Adaptive Communications Node, a laser-enabled military internet. Other countries are also recognizing they need their own services. China plans to launch 13,000 satellites as part of its GuoWang constellation, Canada to send up 300 of its own, Germany to launch 600, and the European Union to launch its Iris Project, at a cost of $2.6 billion.

By some estimates, the number of LEO satellites could reach 60,000 by 2030.

// Major implications

The space race to launch and control satellites that power the future of our internet is about to take off, with major implications.

• Global access to internet: Internet from space has the potential to deliver high-speed internet to every corner of the world. While this won’t end the digital divide (because internet affordability is another matter), satellite internet can ensure a connection is possible anywhere.
• The entrance of governments: Governments have recognized that controlling their internet is an issue of national security, leading them to reshore technologies and vertically-integrate supply chains they’ve previously outsourced.
• The incumbency of Starlink: Because Starlink is a service of the rocket company SpaceX, it has a major advantage in keeping launch costs low (made even cheaper by SpaceX’s innovation of reusing rockets). This creates high barriers to entry for commercial and country competitors alike.
• The risk of actual star war: The militarization of space is a growing trend, as countries develop anti-satellite missiles and lasers/jammers that can thwart satellite communication. A Russian minister said satellites are fair targets in retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian aggression. A study by Chinese scientists found that an atomic detonation in LEO could lead to the paralysis of the world’s satellite internet.
• New alliances, new enemies: New public-private partnerships and alliances will be forged around satellite internet in an effort to avoid reliance on unfriendly foreign entities (for example, the US, the UK, and the French governments co-invested in the private company OneWeb).

The future of the internet is politically fraught, but also far more globally accessible. Satellite internet is unlocking greater access, bridging divides, and contributing to geopolitics in the digital age.

Other notable headlines

// 🌐 Brought to you by Project Liberty CEO, Martina Larkin, this article in TechCrunch, argues that the next iteration of the web should be a decentralized, user-driven, open network where information can be exchanged and networks will be interoperable. And most importantly, the users will own and control their personal data. 

// 🏛 With major implications surrounding how the First Amendment applies to powerful tech platforms, an article in The New York Times reported that the US Supreme Court agreed to hear cases about whether Florida and Texas may prohibit large social media companies from removing posts based on the views they express. 

// 🎞 Last week, as reported by WIRED, Netflix sent out its final DVD, ending an era that catered to people who loved films and signaling the age of good enough entertainment via algorithms.

// 🇧🇷 In Brazil, delivery apps are now asking customers to report child delivery workers, as underage gig workers keep outsmarting facial recognition, according to an article in Rest of the World.

// 🔎 A lawsuit by the Federal Trade Commission alleges that Amazon ranks its own products first, according to an article in The Markup, which first investigated the issue two years ago.

// 📝 An article in WIRED suggested that the deal reached by Hollywood writers around AI guardrails will rewrite history and influence industries far beyond entertainment.

// 📘 183,000 books were used without permission to train generative-AI systems by Meta, Bloomberg, and others. An article in The Atlantic allows you to see which authors and books were illegally used.

// ✖ The election integrity team at X is gone, according to an article in The Guardian, just as the world prepares for 70 elections in 2024.

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